The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has published new data showing a widening gap in consumer spending between Americans with and without college degrees. The analysis uses data from a 200,000-person consumer panel tracked by analytics firm Numerator.
By December 2025, college-educated households showed retail spending growth (before accounting for inflation) approximately 2.4 percentage points faster than non-college households since January 2023. When adjusted for inflation, non-college households saw about 4% real spending growth, compared to about 6% for college graduates.
The researchers describe this as a "K-shaped economy" — where different segments of the population experience diverging economic fortunes. Most of the divergence occurred by spring 2024, suggesting the gap opened early and has persisted.
However, there are important limitations. The data comes from an opt-in consumer panel, meaning participants chose to join — which could introduce self-selection bias. The panel is adjusted to better represent the overall U.S. population, but this can't account for all differences between panelists and the general population.
Additionally, the study only measures retail spending, excluding major costs like housing, healthcare, and education. Since these categories affect education groups very differently, the retail spending gap may not reflect the full economic picture. The "K-shaped" framing also implies a simple divide, when reality likely involves multiple factors including income, geography, and industry differences.